After
E-Day, Peace Or War?
V.Thangavelu
Comrade Somawansa Amarasignhe, leader of the JVP has
resurfaced in Sri Lanka after an absence of 12 years,
thanks to President Chandrika who provided him with a brand new
passport. Not long ago President Chandrika and her PA held photo exhibitions in towns and
villages in the South to expose the campaign of terror
carried out by the JVP during 1989/90.
President Chandrika is also on record of accusing the JVP being responsible
for the murder of her own husband (albeit she sometimes attributes the crime to the UNP).
Now an urge for political survival had compelled President Chandrika to get into bed
with the JVP leader.
Comrade Amarasinghe is a self-confessed murderer of 6,000
civilians out of a total of 60,000 within a period of 2 years. Though he has denied
attacking the Dalada Maligawa (only the police post was attacked he says), Diyawadana Nilame Neranjan Wijeratna has a
different story to tell.
Within days after the return of self-exiled Comrade Amarasinghe, Diyawadana Nilame Neranjan Wijeratna told a news conference in Kandy that the JVP was responsible for the first attack (a closely kept secret till now) on the Dalada Maligawa during the terror period. Soon after this news conference, a grenade was thrown at the official residence of the Diyawadana Nilame causing damage to the kitchen on Wednesday night (November 28,2001) which coincided with the day the JVP held its campaign rally in Kandy.
President Chandrika is a bundle of contradictions. Lying has become her full time job as President.
She lies through both corners of her mouth without even batting an eye lid!
Her accusation that the Elephants have a secret pact with
Tigers is a lie. She said that in the elections held in 2000 as well. If there is a pact, then there should have been
some negotiations between the UNP and LTTE either in Vanni or Colombo. But such
negotiations cannot take place without the
knowledge of the government and its intelligence agencies. And Ranil Wickremesinghe is not
a political nitwit to commit such hara-kiri. President
Chandrika knows what she says is a lie. But she repeats the lie in the hope the Sinhalese
voters will swallow it. She is relying on the poor I.Q. or memory loss of the voters.
Otherwise one cannot comprehend the paradox of how she was able to romp home during
elections in 1994 on a peace podium and then
win the 2000 elections on an all-out war platform!
During the current
election campaign President Chandrika is again playing the LTTE card to the full to rally
Sinhala racist and religious forces against the UNP.
She has said that if UNP is voted into power, Prabhakaran will become
President of Sri Lanka within two years! Or if Northeast is ceded then he will conquer the
whole of Sri Lanka. Such utterances are not surprising given the fact that the SLFP itself was formed on the bedrock of Sinhala
nationalism (a euphemism for Sinhala racism) and has a long and uninterrupted history of
marshalling and marching at the head of ultra- Sinhala Buddhist brigade.
It is obvious to the discerning individual that
President Chandrika’s political fortunes had everything to do with her birth and
nothing to do with her brains! Even a mediocre will tell you that Prof.Pieris; former Vice
Chancellor of Colombo University will prove a better President and Head of State than
Chandrika Kumaratunga. After all Prof. Pieris is
a professor of law and a constitutional expert, though President Chandrika claims that it
is she who prepares the budget and he as Deputy
Finance Minister simply reads same in the
parliament. It is a surprise that she has not laid claims that it is not Prof. Peiris, but it is she who drafted the constitution!
While the elections is centred around LTTE and Prabhakaran, no thought is given
to the sinking or nose diving economy due to escalating cost of living, rampant unemployment, hyper-inflation, poor
economic growth, falling foreign reserves, burgeoning
foreign and domestic debt, widening trade deficit etc.
The average annual export growth
rate of Sri Lanka in 1995-2000 was 9.8 per cent and it was lower than many other countries in the region. Although exports rose by 19.8 per cent in 2000,
they are expected to decline this year. In the first nine months of 2001, exports in
dollar terms have declined by 8.1 per cent over the corresponding period in 2000. The
principal export - textiles and garments - has dropped by 10.6 per cent. It is reported that some 80 factories have ceased to
operate while about 100 others are providing work only for two weeks in a month.
Agricultural exports dropped by 6.0 per cent. Tea prices in dollar terms were 16.0 per
cent lower in September than a year ago.
The total domestic and the foreign debt now exceeds the GDP.
In 1990 the total public debt was Rs 310 billion. In 1996, it has more than doubled to
reach Rs 708 billion and now in 2001 it has nearly doubled again to reach Rs 1372 billion. The per capita public debt has reached the
astronomical figure of Rs72,282 in 2001, as compared to Rs 18,235 in 1990 and Rs 32,352 in
1994, when the PA came into power. Debt burden of every person in the island now exceeds
Rs 72,000.
Tourist arrivals which declined from 436,440 in 1999 to
400,414 in 2000 or by about 8 per cent are expected to drop further particularly as a
result of the global downturn and the fear created by
attacks at Katunayake airport. Tourist arrivals for first 9 months were 6.9 per cent less than in the corresponding
period last year. Receipts from tourism
generated US$ 252 million in 2000, will be
well below $ 180 million this year.
Sri Lanka’s average annual current account deficit
in the balance of payments in 1995-2000 was 4.1 per cent of GDP. In 2000 it was $ 989 million or 6.0 per cent of GDP caused mainly
by a large trade deficit of $ 1798 million. Current account deficits have been covered by
using the country’s official foreign exchange reserves which fell from $ 2063 million
in 1995 to $ 1202 million in September 2001 or by 42 per cent. There was a commitment to
the IMF to rebuild official reserves to $1.5 billion, but these reserves are around $ 1 billion now.
Official foreign exchange reserves fell to as low as $ 942 million at the
end of March 2001 - the equivalent of 1.6 months’ imports.
The IMF standby of $ 131 million, out of a total of $253 million,
in April, 2001 increased the
reserves to $ 1202 million by September—the equivalent of 2.3 months of imports. But
further drawings ( $61 million) have been postponed as Sri Lanka failed to comply with IMF conditions. Total external assets, i.e. including those of
commercial banks have fallen from $2902 million at the end of 1995 to $ 2131 million at
the end of 2000 and risen slightly to $ 2265 million by September.
The large current account deficits are also a major cause of the depreciation
of the rupee from $ 1 = Rs. 54.0475 in 1995 to US $ 1 = 74.3235 in 2000 and US$ 1 = Rs.
92.7400 in November 2001. The constantly depreciating rupee tends to increase prices of
all imported goods and raise the general price level in the country. Colombo Consumers
Price Index in November 2001 records an inflation rate of 14.3 per cent.
Defense expenditure since 1994 has soared coupled with severe losses of
territory, equipment and men. The war is costing the PA government Rs. 83 billion in 2000 out of a total government
expenditure of Rs. 320 billion rupees. This
figure is likely to rise to Rs. 85 billion during 2001.
As a percentage of GDP defense
expenditure rose to 5.4 per cent s compared to 3.9 per cent in 1990-1994.
But a brave-faced President Chandrika
brags that GNP has doubled (100%) since 1994! But that
is GNP at current factor cost prices. GNP at constant factor cost prices or in real terms
rose by only 34 per cent.
But how do you tell all these to the Sinhalese voters who line up to cast their
franchise on the morning of December 5,2001 to elect a new parliament? Racist politics has paid rich dividends from the
days of S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike, Mrs. Srimavo Bandaranaike, J.R.Jayewardene, Ranasingha
Premadasa and now Chandrika Kumaratunga. After E-Day-
Peace or War ? The choice lies with the Sinhalese voters in the south.